Macroeconomic changes and educational inequalities in traffic fatalities in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000\u20132015: a register-based study

Andrew Stickley,Naoki Kondo,Mall Leinsalu,Pekka Martikainen,Juris Krumins,Domantas Jasilionis,Aleksei Baburin

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-81135-5

Abstract

This study examined trends and inequalities in road traffic accident (RTA) mortality in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Finland in relation to large-scale macroeconomic changes in the 2000s. Educational inequalities in RTA mortality in 2000–2003, 2004–2007, 2008–2011 and 2012–2015 among 30–74 year olds were examined using census-linked longitudinal mortality data and by estimating the relative and slope index of inequality. Overall RTA mortality decreased substantially between 2000–2003 and 2012–2015. From 2004–2007 to 2008–2011, the RTA mortality decline accelerated but was larger in the Baltic countries. Among men the RTA mortality decline was mostly driven by a larger fall among the high and middle educated. Among women, the changes in RTA mortality by educational level had no clear pattern. From 2000–2003 to 2012–2015 relative educational inequalities in RTA mortality increased among men, although more in the Baltic countries. Among women the pattern was mixed across countries. Absolute inequalities fell in all countries among both sexes. Educational inequalities in male RTA mortality may be growing because of increasingly less access to safer cars and a more hazardous driving culture among the lower educated.

Highlights

This study examined trends and inequalities in road traffic accident (RTA) mortality in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Finland in relation to large-scale macroeconomic changes in the 2000s
As assessed by mortality rate ratios (Fig. 2; Supplementary Table 1), RTA mortality increased in Lithuania, but decreased in Finland and among men in Latvia between 2000–2003 and 2004–2007
From 2004–2007 to 2008–2011 the RTA mortality decline accelerated among both men and women in all countries, with a larger fall observed in the Baltic countries

Summary

Introduction

This study examined trends and inequalities in road traffic accident (RTA) mortality in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Finland in relation to large-scale macroeconomic changes in the 2000s. Other research has focused on the effects of the Great Recession (2008–2010) with studies from both Spain[7] and Great Britain[8] showing that it was associated with a reduction in RTA mortality, while another study indicated that in OECD countries it may have been linked to an accelerated decline in mortality over and above prior trends[9]. Despite these general findings, as yet, relatively little is known about whether the effects of economic change on RTA mortality differ by socioeconomic status. Other research from Great Britain showed that the least affluent groups may have experienced a slightly larger reduction in RTA mortality in the Great Recession in 2008–2010 vs. 2004–20078

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Conclusion