Macroeconomic and financial implications of multi‐dimensional interdependencies between OECD countries

Abstract

AbstractThis paper uses a complex structure of factors of exposure to international shocks for the analysis of regional and inter‐regional effects of a variety of financial shocks across Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) economies. Those factors (trade, finance, migration and others) are incorporated in a coherent and comparable scheme which, based on observed data, describes pair‐wise, directionally asymmetric exposures to foreign economies in the sample. Through a global vector auto‐regressive setting, a systemic approach characterizes our modelling by the means of which several standardized shocks are simulated varying the region of origin to compare their effects and spillovers. In the depicted map of risks, the shocks are of particular relevance to both wholesale and retail credit markets, stock and commodities markets and also for the management of monetary and fiscal policies in open economies. The diversity of responses between OECD regions is useful to understand the asymmetric impacts and degrees of relative vulnerability towards disturbances in international markets. A subset of Eurozone countries, for example, consistently shows significant sensitivity to foreign shocks. Other Eurozone countries experience a lower degree of imported volatility while Asia‐Pacific appears to be more resilient to shocks in OECD regions. In turn, the significance of the impacts of shocks in the North American Free Trade Agreement region is large enough for them to be close representations of global shocks.