Abstract
This study analyzes the diffusion of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in the world and evaluates the vehicle charging stations based on the European Union (EU) scenario. Initially, the global BEV sales data from 2005 to 2018 are fitted with the two most frequently used econometric logistics and Bass diffusion models. Further, the study identifies the different stage adopters, forecasts the consumption of BEVs, and examines the velocity and acceleration of BEV diffusion. Finally, future charging stations are examined to meet the BEV sales demand. Results suggest that the adoption of BEVs demonstrates a better fit on the Bass model where the global BEV market is estimated to grow from 5,3 millions in 2019 to near 40 millions units by 2030, and with the reference of the EU countries’ adoption scenario, the global charging stations will be increased from near 2 millions in 2019 to near 10 millions units by 2030.
Highlights
Electric Vehicle (EV) are a feasible and sustainable solution for the future of technology in the automobile industry, which can reduce the current dependence on fossil fuels and greenhouse gas (GHS) emissions [Adnan et al, 2017; Liao et al, 2017]
The results show that the Bass model fits the data better than the logistic model
Early battery electric vehicles (BEV) adopters are active at present
Summary
EVs are a feasible and sustainable solution for the future of technology in the automobile industry, which can reduce the current dependence on fossil fuels and greenhouse gas (GHS) emissions [Adnan et al, 2017; Liao et al, 2017]. This study conducts a macro study of the diffusion of EVs with two S-shaped growth Bass and logistic models. The mathematical expression of the S-shaped Bass diffusion model [Bass, 1969] when each adopter buys only one unit of new product and market potential does not change over time is presented below:. We forecast future global demand of BEVs based on the Bass diffusion growth model as explained above in section four and the public charging stations scenario in the EU. When four vehicles per charging station and the global BEV adoption follow the Bass growth model, there will about 10 million public charging stations in the world by the end of 2030
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