Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates

Abstract

We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Macro risks represent the variables that govern the time-varying variance, skewness, and higher-order moments of these two shocks, with ”good” (”bad”) variance associated with positive (negative) skewness. We document that macro risks significantly contribute to the variation of yields and risk premiums for nominal bonds. While overall bond risk premiums are countercyclical, an increase in aggregate demand variance significantly lowers risk premiums. Macro risks also significantly predict future realized bond return variances.