Macro-factors driving bicycle adoption as a primary transport mode across Europe

Abstract

This study provides the first analysis of geospatial factors on the seasonal decision to commute by bike or use a bike for errands across 31 European countries. The sample was drawn from a survey of 14,845 respondents and combined with geospatial variables that describe the respondents’ local areas. Controlling for well-known demographic and subjective socio-cultural variables, statistical relationships from the less explored objective geospatial variables on the seasonal biking decisions were estimated using a bivariate probit model. We find that the large differences observed between the biking levels in European countries can not be explained by differences in structural characteristics alone. In line with literature our interpretation of this gap points towards biking as a social innovation, partly driven by cultural and societal levers. The cross-country comparison presented in this study improves our understanding of the dynamic social innovation process that encapsulates mobility choice and cycling adoption, and highlights the levers that policymakers and urban planners have to influence this process.