Macro-environmental comparative analysis of e-mobility adoption pathways in France, Germany and Norway

Abstract

The analysis of electric vehicle adoption pathways on a national level is a multi-dimensional problem, making adoption path analysis a complex task. The identification of successful strategies is however crucial for the decarbonization of the transport sector. This work provides an innovative analytical tool integrating a national adoption path identification framework and a macro-environmental STEPE (socio-cultural, technological, economic, political, environmental) approach.The method is tested at three countries: Norway, as the country with highest electric vehicle (EV) share globally, and France and Germany as two important European car-maker industries. When comparing France, Germany and Norway, the proposed framework allows raising the following main conclusions: Technology itself is not a decisive criteria. For the evolvement of a national EV production portfolio, the social value of the technology and the willingness of the incumbent car industry to position itself in this new market appear important. When EV are available in the market, regulatory incentives and policies have to match with consumer preferences. Among direct subsidies, policies affecting the purchase price of EV are identified as most effective instrument. The analysis further prompts a duality between national incentives and local programs supporting EV adoption. The final timeline analysis with Norway as forerunner and France and Germany as early adopters provides a detailed assessment of the temporal evolvement of national EV adoption pathways.