Machine learning-based prediction of postpartum hemorrhage after vaginal delivery: combining bleeding high risk factors and uterine contraction curve.

Abstract

This work used a machine learning model to improve the accuracy of predicting postpartum hemorrhage in vaginal delivery. Among the 25,098 deliveries in the obstetrics department of the First Hospital of Jinan University recorded from 2016 to 2020, 10,520 were vaginal deliveries with complete study data. Further review selected 850 cases of postpartum hemorrhage (amount of bleeding > 500mL) and 54 cases of severe postpartum hemorrhage (amount of bleeding > 1000mL). Indicators of clinical risk factors for postpartum hemorrhage were retrieved from electronic medical records. Features of the uterine contraction curve were extracted 2h prior to vaginal delivery and modeled using a 49-variable machine learning with 90% of study cases used in the training set and 10% of study cases used in the test set. Accuracy was compared among the assessment table, classical statistical models, and machine learning models used to predict postpartum hemorrhage to assess their clinical use. The assessment table contained 16 high-risk factor scores to predict postpartum hemorrhage. The classical statistical model used was Logistic Regression (LR). The machine learning models were Random Forest (RF), K Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and the one integrated with Lightgbm (LGB) and LR. The effect of model prediction was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), namely, C-static, calibration curve Brier score, decision curve, F-measure, sensitivity (SE), and specificity (SP). 1:Among the tested tools, the machine learning model LGB + LR has the best performance in predicting postpartum hemorrhage. Its Brier, AUC, and F-measure scores are better than those of other models in each group, and its SE and SP reach 0.694 and 0.800, respectively. The predictive performance of the classical statistical model LR is AUC: 0.729, 95%CI [0.702-0.756]). 2: Verification on the testing set reveals that the features of uterine contraction contribute to the improved accuracy of the model prediction. 3: LGB + LR model suggested that among the 49 indicators for predicting severe postpartum hemorrhage, the importance of the first 10 characteristics in descending order is as follows: hematocrit (%), shock index, frequency of contractions (min-1), white blood cell count, gestational hypertension, neonatal weight (kg), time of second labor (min), mean area of contractions (mmHgs), total amniotic fluid (mL), and body mass index (BMI). The prediction effect is close to that of the model after training with all 49 features. The predictive effect was close to that of the model after training using all 49 features. 4: Contraction frequency and intensity Mean_Area (representing effective contractions) have a high predictive value for severe postpartum hemorrhage. 5: Blood loss amount within 2h has a high warning effect on postpartum hemorrhage, and the increase in AUC to 0.95 indicates that postpartum bleeding mostly occurs within 2h after delivery. Machine learning models incorporated with uterine contraction features can further improve the accuracy of postpartum hemorrhage prediction in vaginal delivery and provide a reference for clinicians to intervene early and reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes.