Machine learning to predict the development of recurrent urinary tract infection related to single uropathogen, Escherichia coli

Abstract

Recurrent urinary tract infection (RUTI) can damage renal function and has impact on healthcare costs and patients’ quality of life. There were 2 stages for development of prediction models for RUTI. The first stage was a scenario in the clinical visit. The second stage was a scenario after hospitalization for urinary tract infection caused by Escherichia coli. Three machine learning models, logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF) were built for the RUTI prediction. The RF model had higher prediction accuracy than LR and DT (0.700, 0.604, and 0.654 in stage 1, respectively; 0.709, 0.604, and 0.635 in stage 2, respectively). The decision rules constructed by the DT model could provide high classification accuracy (up to 0.92 in stage 1 and 0.94 in stage 2) in certain subgroup patients in different scenarios. In conclusion, this study provided validated machine learning models and RF could provide a better accuracy in predicting the development of single uropathogen (E. coli) RUTI. Both host and bacterial characteristics made important contribution to the development of RUTI in the prediction models in the 2 clinical scenarios, respectively. Based on the results, physicians could take action to prevent the development of RUTI.