Machine Learning to Predict Outcomes of Fetal Cardiac Disease: A Pilot Study.

Abstract

Prediction of outcomes following a prenatal diagnosis of congenital heart disease (CHD) is challenging. Machine learning (ML) algorithms may be used to reduce clinical uncertainty and improve prognostic accuracy. We performed a pilot study to train ML algorithms to predict postnatal outcomes based on clinical data. Specific objectives were to predict (1) in utero or neonatal death, (2) high-acuity neonatal care and (3) favorable outcomes. We included all fetuses with cardiac disease at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada, from 2012 to 2021. Prediction models were created using the XgBoost algorithm (tree-based) with fivefold cross-validation. Among 211 cases of fetal cardiac disease, 61 were excluded (39 terminations, 21 lost to follow-up, 1 isolated arrhythmia), leaving a cohort of 150 fetuses. Fifteen (10%) demised (10 neonates) and 65 (48%) of live births required high acuity neonatal care. Of those with clinical follow-up, 60/87 (69%) had a favorable outcome. Prediction models for fetal or neonatal death, high acuity neonatal care and favorable outcome had AUCs of 0.76, 0.84 and 0.73, respectively. The most important predictors for death were the presence of non-cardiac abnormalities combined with more severe CHD. High acuity of postnatal care was predicted by anti Ro antibody and more severe CHD. Favorable outcome was most predicted by no right heart disease combined with genetic abnormalities, and maternal medications. Prediction models using ML provide good discrimination of key prenatal and postnatal outcomes among fetuses with congenital heart disease.