Machine learning provides insights for spatially explicit pest management strategies by integrating information on population connectivity and habitat use in a key agricultural pest.

Abstract

Insect pests have garnered increasing interest because of anthropogenic global change, and their sustainable management requires knowledge of population habitat use and spread patterns. To enhance this knowledge for the prevalent tea pest Empoasca onukii, we utilized a random forest algorithm and a bivariate map to develop and integrate models of its habitat suitability and genetic connectivity across China. Our modeling revealed heterogeneous spatial patterns in suitability and connectivity despite the common key environmental predictor of isothermality. Analyses indicated that tea cultivation in areas surrounding the Tibetan Plateau and the southern tip of China may be at low risk of population outbreaks because of their predicted low suitability and connectivity. However, regions along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River should consider the high abundance and high recolonization potential of E. onukii, and thus the importance of control measures. Our results also emphasized the need to prevent dispersal from outside regions in the areas north of the Yangtze River and highlighted the effectiveness of internal management efforts in southwestern China and along the southeastern coast. Further projections under future conditions suggested the potential for increased abundance and spread in regions north of the Yangtze River and the southern tip of China, and indicated the importance of long-term monitoring efforts in these areas. These findings highlighted the significance of combining information on habitat use and spread patterns for spatially explicit pest management planning. In addition, the approaches we used have potential applications in the management of other pest systems and the conservation of endangered biological resources. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.