Machine learning prediction of above-ground biomass in pure Calabrian pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) stands of the Mediterranean region, Türkiye

Abstract

Above-ground biomass (AGB) is an important component for identifying carbon stocks, monitoring the impacts of climate change, and evaluating merchantable timber. Accurate prediction of forest AGB is central to the correct interpretation of these components and to produce usable data for planners and researchers. In this study, remotely sensed time-series data derived from Landsat 8 (reflectance (R) and vegetation indices (VI)), topographic (T) and climate (C) data were used as independent variables to predict AGB of pure Calabrian pine (Pinus brutia Ten.) stands using multiple regression analysis (MLR) and support vector machines (SVM) methods. The AGB modeling was done by using independent variables individually and by combining variables, and the AGB maps of the most successful models obtained from MLR and SVM methods were produced. It was determined that the most successful variable group was the VI when the independent variables were used one by one (MLR Training R2 = 0.50, SVM Training R2 = 0.67). The most successful predictions in AGB modeling were obtained with combining all independent variables and using the SVM method (Training R2 = 0.85, Validation R2 = 0.69). In the combination of independent variables, VI and C data made the greatest contribution to the success of the AGB prediction. The ‘green leaf index’ vegetation indices had the most significant effect on the modeling AGB. In this study, T and C in addition to spectral data has increased the AGB estimation performance. It has been found that the SVM method yielded higher model accuracy than MLR method in predicting AGB. Overall, the spectral data and the SVM method can contribute to improving the accuracy of AGB estimates and provide an effective approach towards the capability for forest ecosystem monitoring.