Machine learning prediction models for individualized technical success of chronic total occlusion revascularization using anatomical input

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Chronic total occlusion revascularization (CTO PCI) remains a challenging procedure in the realm of percutaneous coronary interventions. Efforts such as implementing the hybrid algorithm for CTO crossing have been made. Interventional techniques are evolving, and complexity scores such as the J-CTO score might get outdated. Machine learning models can be used to overcome this limitation by constantly providing new data and improving the models by continuous data feeding. In this study, we introduced machine learning models to predict individualized technical success of CTO PCI using anatomical coronary information and baseline information. Methods Consecutive patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention of chronic total occlusions were enrolled in this study. Angiographic data and lesion characteristics from coronary angiography were extracted. Machine learning models were applied to predict technical success. A total of 271 patients were used to validate and train the models and 50 separate patients for testing. Data was normalized and fed to several classifying machine learning models including decision trees (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), CatBoost (CB) classifiers, and light gradient boosting (LGB). Finally, accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score of the selected hyperparameters and cross-validation was performed. Results CB was the best performing model with an accuracy of 0.81, precision of 0.83 and recall of 0.98. The F1 score was 0.90. RF was the second-best performing model with accuracy of 0.77, precision of 0.82, recall of 0.92 and F1 score 0.87. The tuned models performed modestly with RF having a low F1 score of 0.44, due to small sample size. In the tuned models. LGB had a higher F1 score and a relatively high accuracy (0.782) and precision (0.508). The feature importance matrix found age, CTO length, reference diameter to have the highest value among the lesion complexity parameters. Discussion: Overall, the normal-run CB was the best model for predicting the technical success after a CTO PCI with a high accuracy. The fine-tuned and cross-validated models performed modestly because of the relatively small, unbalanced dataset and overfitting. However, data showed promising first results in implementing machine learning into predicting interventional outcomes. Further studies like data augmentation and providing a weighted dataset would increase the model performance and provide a very precise statement whether a patient would have increased chances to have a successful PCI based on baseline anatomic information. Conclusion This is one of the first studies to predict technical success of CTO PCI using angiographic baseline parameters using machine learning. Future studies with larger patient cohorts are needed to involve deploying the selected model in larger patient cohorts including external validation and assessing its performance with new, unseen data.Figure 1.Machine learning modelsFigure 2.Feature importance matrix