Machine learning models for prediction the Higher Heating Value (HHV) of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) for waste-to-energy evaluation

Abstract

Time-resolved knowledge of physico-chemical properties of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) materials and their thermal energy content is one of the important subjects needed to build waste incineration power plants around the world. For this purpose, machine learning models were used to predict the Higher Heating Value (HHV) of MSW based on the initial materials. Four types of machine learning methods: Radial Bias Function Artificial Neural Network (RBF-ANN), Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network (MLP-ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) were used for modeling the HHV with six different inputs (carbon, water, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, sulfur, and ash). The results showed that RBF-ANN can predict the HHV of MSW with higher accuracy than other models. The overall Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for MLP-ANN, SVM and ANFIS models were 7.3, 11.77 and 23.76%, respectively. The MAPE of the best topology for RBF model (6-17-1) with spread factor of 0.8 reach to 0.45%. Finally, the results of this study proved that ANN's can be used as a practical tool with high accuracy and reliability for design and management of waste incineration plants.