Machine Learning for the Prediction of Survival Post-Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation: A Single-Center Experience

Abstract

Introduction: Prediction of outcomes following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) remains a major challenge. Machine learning (ML) is a computational procedure that may facilitate the generation of HCT prediction models. We sought to investigate the prognostic potential of multiple ML algorithms when applied to a large single-center allogeneic HCT database. Methods: Our registry included 2,697 patients that underwent allogeneic HCT from January 1976 to December 2017. 45 pretransplant baseline variables were included in the predictive assessment of each ML algorithm on overall survival (OS) as determined by area under the curve (AUC). Pretransplant variables used in the EBMT ML study (Shouval et al., 2015) were used as a benchmark for comparison. Results: On the entire dataset, the random forest (RF) algorithm performed best (AUC 0.71 ± 0.04) compared to the second-best model, logistic regression (LR) (AUC = 0.69 ± 0.04) (p < 0.001). Both algorithms demonstrated improved AUC scores using all 45 variables compared to the limited variables examined by the EBMT study. Survival at 100 days post-HCT using RF on the full dataset discriminated patients into different prognostic groups with different 2-year OS (p < 0.0001). We then examined the ML methods that allow for significant individual variable identification, including LR and RF, and identified matched related donors (HR = 0.49, p < 0.0001), increasing TBI dose (HR = 1.60, p = 0.006), increasing recipient age (HR = 1.92, p < 0.0001), higher baseline Hb (HR = 0.59, p = 0.0002), and increased baseline FEV1 (HR = 0.73, p = 0.02), among others. Conclusion: The application of multiple ML techniques on single-center allogeneic HCT databases warrants further investigation and may provide a useful tool to identify variables with prognostic potential.