Machine Learning-Based traffic Crash Count Prediction

Abstract

This research paper focuses on comparing two Machine Learning (ML) approaches—Time Series Analysis and a Feature-Based Prediction—for predicting traffic accident counts. Spanning the years 2005 to 2016 in Paris, the study leverages a comprehensive dataset that includes attributes such as weather conditions. Following dataset preprocessing and partitioning into training and test sets, the research systematically develops and evaluates these two contrasting ML modeling approaches. Furthermore, the study extends its comparison by evaluating the performance of various ML models, emphasizing the power of the proposed Neural Network (NN) model. Metrics such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are employed to assess and contrast the predictive capabilities of each model. The results not only showcase the effectiveness of the neural network model but also elucidate its superiority over alternative ML approaches, particularly in the context of traffic accident prediction.