Machine learning-based surrogate models for fast impact assessment of a new building on urban local microclimate at design stage

Abstract

The rapid urbanization introduces changes in the local urban microclimate. Many efforts have been paid on the impact assessment of building design on local microclimate. However, there is still a lack of efficient and accurate prediction method for assessing the impacts on local microclimate when making the design of individual buildings. Two complementary machine learning-based surrogate models are proposed, including an SVR-based local air temperature model and a LightGBM-based local wind velocity model. They are identified by evaluating and comparing eight alternative machine learning models, four for each model development. 200 sets of CFD simulation data corresponding to different building designs are used for the model training and validation. The results show that the developed surrogate models can dramatically reduce computation time (from over 5 h to less than a second for a single prediction) while keeping the same order of accuracy of CFD simulations for local microclimate prediction of individual buildings. It therefore facilitates the fast, comprehensive and accurate prediction of the impacts on the local microclimate at the early design stage of new construction and renovation of individual buildings, for designers to deliver preferred local microclimate and/or avoid unacceptable microclimate changes.