Machine learning-based Shapley additive explanations approach for corroded pipeline failure mode identification

Abstract

Rapid failure mode identification of oil and gas pipelines can prevent catastrophic consequences, improve fast intervention and enhance the design safety of these critical systems. This paper proposes explainable-based machine learning models using to determine the failure mode of corroded pipelines as a function of geometric configurations, material properties, and corrosion defect details. To determine the best identification model, this study examined eight machine learning models, including Nave Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Adaptive Boosting, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, and Category Boosting, based on a comprehensive experimental database for steel pipelines with various corrosion/crack defect configurations. Furthermore, the Shapley additive explanations approach is utilized to rank the input variables for failure mode identification and explains the machine learning model predicting a specific failure mode for a given sample. In identifying the failure mode of corroded pipelines, the proposed Extreme Gradient Boosting model indicated the highest accuracy in term of performance evaluation compared to all other proposed models. In addition, the model-explanation findings show that the important parameter influencing the failure mechanism of corroded pipelines is the depth of corrosion defects followed by the pipeline wall thickness. The proposed framework is adaptable enough to allow further use of experimental results for having new insights.