Machine learning based prospect targeting: A case of gold occurrence in central parts of Tanzania, East Africa

Abstract

Soil geochemical analyses from central Tanzania reveal significant gold (Au) values, highlighting the potential for further exploration in the region. This study employs ensemble machine learning models—XGBoost-RF, XGBoost-SVM, and XGBoost-ANN—to enhance predictions of Au distribution. Among these, the XGBoost-ANN model showed the highest accuracy during the training phase, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 1.275, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.031, an R² of 0.999, and a Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) of 0.999. However, its performance declined in the testing phase with a MAPE of 0.0668 and an RMSE of 0.2491, indicating reduced predictiveness on new data. Spatial analyses using Global and Local Moran's I tests revealed no significant global spatial autocorrelation but identified localized clusters of high and low Au concentrations. Specific areas showed significant spatial dependence, enhancing our understanding of the complex geospatial distribution of Au. These findings support the combined use of predictive modeling and spatial statistical methods to refine mineral exploration strategies, highlighting the value of advanced analytics in identifying promising exploration targets.