Machine Learning-Based Predictions of Mortality and Readmission in Type 2 Diabetes Patients in the ICU

Abstract

Prognostic outcomes for patients with type 2 diabetes in the intensive care unit (ICU), including mortality and readmission rates, are critical for informed clinical decision-making. Although existing research has established a link between type 2 diabetes and adverse outcomes in the ICU, the potential of machine learning techniques for enhancing predictive accuracy has not been fully realized. This study seeks to develop and validate predictive models employing machine learning algorithms to forecast mortality and 30-day post-discharge readmission rates among ICU type 2 diabetes patients, thereby enhancing predictive accuracy and supporting clinical decision-making. Data were extracted and preprocessed from the MIMIC-III database, focusing on 14,222 patients with type 2 diabetes and their corresponding ICU admission records. Comprehensive information, including vital signs, laboratory results, and demographic characteristics, was utilized. Six machine learning algorithms—bagging, AdaBoost, GaussianNB, logistic regression, MLP, and SVC—were developed and evaluated using 10-fold cross-validation to predict mortality at 3 days, 30 days, and 365 days, as well as 30-day post-discharge readmission rates. The machine learning models demonstrated strong predictive performance for both mortality and readmission rates. Notably, the bagging and AdaBoost models showed superior performance in predicting mortality across various time intervals, achieving AUC values up to 0.8112 and an accuracy of 0.8832. In predicting 30-day readmission rates, the MLP and AdaBoost models yielded the highest performance, with AUC values reaching 0.8487 and accuracy rates of 0.9249. The integration of electronic health record data with advanced machine learning techniques significantly enhances the accuracy of mortality and readmission predictions in ICU type 2 diabetes patients. These models facilitate the identification of high-risk patients, enabling timely interventions, improving patient outcomes, and demonstrating the significant potential of machine learning in clinical prediction and decision support.