Machine learning based energy demand prediction

Abstract

Energy demand prediction can benefit electricity consumers, distribution network service providers, and system operators. It heavily depends on auxiliary factors, such as weather parameters (e.g., ambient temperature), which makes this problem more complex. Moreover, for many industrial applications, instead of aiming for the highest prediction accuracy, a more easily understandable and interpretable model that can lead to higher accuracy against the baseline model is the priority. Therefore, this problem still requires more investigation, especially when there is a specified prediction baseline to be compared with. This paper proposes a machine learning (ML) based prediction framework that investigates how temperature combined with energy consumption and simple and interpretable ML methods can be used to provide more precise demand forecasts and thus baselines closer to actual load profiles. The proposed framework is tested on two different real-world energy demand datasets. The analysis shows that using a simple ML model, such as a polynomial regression model, results in a more accurate prediction than the current baselines used in the energy market. The proposed ML models are not black-box type models, and thus are easier to explain and interpret. The ML-based forecasted demand is used as a baseline for demand response (DR) and is compared with the existing baselines used in the demand response market of Australia’s national grid.