Machine learning approaches for biomarker discovery to predict large-artery atherosclerosis

Abstract

Large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) is a leading cause of cerebrovascular disease. However, LAA diagnosis is costly and needs professional identification. Many metabolites have been identified as biomarkers of specific traits. However, there are inconsistent findings regarding suitable biomarkers for the prediction of LAA. In this study, we propose a new method integrates multiple machine learning algorithms and feature selection method to handle multidimensional data. Among the six machine learning models, logistic regression (LR) model exhibited the best prediction performance. The value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.92 when 62 features were incorporated in the external validation set for the LR model. In this model, LAA could be well predicted by clinical risk factors including body mass index, smoking, and medications for controlling diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia as well as metabolites involved in aminoacyl-tRNA biosynthesis and lipid metabolism. In addition, we found that 27 features were present among the five adopted models that could provide good results. If these 27 features were used in the LR model, an AUC value of 0.93 could be achieved. Our study has demonstrated the effectiveness of combining machine learning algorithms with recursive feature elimination and cross-validation methods for biomarker identification. Moreover, we have shown that using shared features can yield more reliable correlations than either model, which can be valuable for future identification of LAA.