Abstract
BackgroundRenal cell carcinoma (RCC) has a high recurrence rate of 20% to 30% after nephrectomy for clinically localized disease, and more than 40% of patients eventually die of the disease, making regular monitoring and constant management of utmost importance.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to develop an algorithm that predicts the probability of recurrence of RCC within 5 and 10 years of surgery.MethodsData from 6849 Korean patients with RCC were collected from eight tertiary care hospitals listed in the KOrean Renal Cell Carcinoma (KORCC) web-based database. To predict RCC recurrence, analytical data from 2814 patients were extracted from the database. Eight machine learning algorithms were used to predict the probability of RCC recurrence, and the results were compared.ResultsWithin 5 years of surgery, the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was obtained from the naïve Bayes (NB) model, with a value of 0.836. Within 10 years of surgery, the highest AUROC was obtained from the NB model, with a value of 0.784.ConclusionsAn algorithm was developed that predicts the probability of RCC recurrence within 5 and 10 years using the KORCC database, a large-scale RCC cohort in Korea. It is expected that the developed algorithm will help clinicians manage prognosis and establish customized treatment strategies for patients with RCC after surgery.
Highlights
Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) accounts for 90% of malignant tumors in the kidney and is twice as common in men as in women [1]
An algorithm was developed that predicts the probability of RCC recurrence within 5 and 10 years using the KOrean Renal Cell Carcinoma (KORCC) database, a large-scale RCC cohort in Korea
The data used in this study were obtained from a large-scale cohort of Korean patients with RCC assembled from the KOrean Renal Cell Carcinoma (KORCC) web-based database
Summary
Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) accounts for 90% of malignant tumors in the kidney and is twice as common in men as in women [1]. It is the sixth most frequently diagnosed cancer in men and the 10th most frequently diagnosed cancer in women worldwide [2]. The number of new kidney cancer cases in Korea in 2017 was 5299, accounting for approximately 2.3% of the total of 232,255 cancer cases. RCC is one of the most lethal types of malignant tumors in urology, with approximately 20% to 30% of patients with RCC suffering from metastatic diseases, and more than 40% of patients eventually die of the disease [4,5,6]. Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has a high recurrence rate of 20% to 30% after nephrectomy for clinically localized disease, and more than 40% of patients eventually die of the disease, making regular monitoring and constant management of utmost importance
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