Machine Learning Approach for Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Deep Neural Network

Abstract

Power system demand forecasting is a crucial task in the power system engineering field. This is due to the fact that most system planning and operation activities basically rely on proper forecasting models. Entire power infrastructures are built essentially to provide and serve the consumption of energy. Therefore, it is very necessary to construct robust and efficient predictive models in order to provide accurate load forecasting. In this paper, three techniques are utilized for short-term load forecasting. These techniques are deep neural network (DNN), multilayer perceptron-based artificial neural network (ANN), and decision tree-based prediction (DR). New predictive variables are included to enhance the overall forecasting and handle the difficulties caused by some categorical predictors. The comparison among these three techniques is executed based on coefficients of determination R2 and mean absolute error (MAE). Statistical tests are performed in order to verify the results and examine whether these models are statistically different or not. The results reveal that the DNN model outperformed the other models and was statistically different from them.