Machine Learning Analysis of Postlaparoscopy Hernias and “I'm Leaving You to Close” Strategy

Abstract

IntroductionContributing factors to postlaparoscopy hernia are unknown. We hypothesized that postlaparoscopy incisional hernias are increased when the index surgery was performed in teaching hospitals. Laparoscopic cholecystectomy was chosen as the archetype for open umbilical access. Materials and methodsMaryland and Florida SID/SASD databases (2016-2019) wereused to track 1-year hernia incidence in both inpatient and outpatient settings, which was then linked to Hospital Compare, Distressed Communities Index (DCI), and ACGME. Postoperative umbilical/incisional hernia following laparoscopic cholecystectomy was identified using CPT and ICD-10. Propensity matching and eight machine learning modes were utilized including logistic regression, neural network, gradient boosting machine, random forest, gradient boosted trees, classification and regression trees, k nearest neighbors and support vector machines. ResultsPostoperative hernia incidence was 0.2% (total = 286; 261 incisional and 25 umbilical) in 117,570 laparoscopic cholecystectomy cases. Days to presentation (mean ± SD) were incisional 141 ± 92 and umbilical 66 ± 74. Logistic regression performed best (AUC 0.75 (95% ci 0.67-0.82) and accuracy 0.68 (95% ci 0.60-0.75) using 10-fold cross validation) in propensity matched groups (1:1; n = 279). Postoperative malnutrition (OR 3.5), hospital DCI of comfortable, mid-tier, at risk or distressed (OR 2.2 to 3.5), LOS >1 d (OR 2.2), postop asthma (OR 2.1), hospital mortality below national average (OR 2.0) and emergency admission (OR 1.7) were associated with increased hernias. A decreased incidence was associated with patient location of small metropolitan areas with <1 million residents (OR 0.5) and Charlson Comorbidity Index-Severe (OR 0.5). Teaching hospitals were not associated with postoperative hernia after laparoscopic cholecystectomy. ConclusionsDifferent patient factors as well as underlying hospital factors are associated with postlaparoscopy hernias. Performance of laparoscopic cholecystectomy at teaching hospitals is not associated with increased postoperative hernias.