Machine learning algorithms for predicting days of high incidence for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

Abstract

Predicting out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) events might improve outcomes of OHCA patients. We hypothesized that machine learning algorithms using meteorological information would predict OHCA incidences. We used the Japanese population-based repository database of OHCA and weather information. The Tokyo data (2005–2012) was used as the training cohort and datasets of the top six populated prefectures (2013–2015) as the test. Eight various algorithms were evaluated to predict the high-incidence OHCA days, defined as the daily events exceeding 75% tile of our dataset, using meteorological and chronological values: temperature, humidity, air pressure, months, days, national holidays, the day before the holidays, the day after the holidays, and New Year’s holidays. Additionally, we evaluated the contribution of each feature by Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. The training cohort included 96,597 OHCA patients. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) had the highest area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.906 (95% confidence interval; 0.868–0.944). In the test cohorts, the XGBoost algorithms also had high AUROC (0.862–0.923). The SHAP values indicated that the “mean temperature on the previous day” impacted the most on the model. Algorithms using machine learning with meteorological and chronological information could predict OHCA events accurately.