Machine learning algorithms can more efficiently predict biochemical recurrence after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy.

Abstract

To develop a model for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) in patients with long follow-up periods using clinical parameters and the machine learning (ML) methods. Patients who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy between January 2014 and December 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients who did not have BCR were assigned to Group 1, while those diagnosed with BCR were assigned to Group 2. The patient's demographic data, preoperative and postoperative parameters were all recorded in the database. Three different ML algorithms were employed: random forest, K-nearest neighbour, and logistic regression. Three hundred and sixty-eight patients were included in this study. Among these patients, 295 (80.1%) did not have BCR (Group 1), while 73 (19.8%) had BCR (Group 2). The mean duration of follow-up and duration until the diagnosis of BCR was calculated as 35.2 ± 16.7 and 11.5 ± 11.3 months, respectively. The multivariate analysis revealed that NLR, PSAd, risk classification, PIRADS score, T stage, presence or absence of positive surgical margin, and seminal vesicle invasion were predictive for BCR. Classic Cox regression analysis had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.915 with a sensitivity and specificity of 90.6% and 79.8%. The AUCs for receiver-operating characteristic curves for random forest, K nearest neighbour, and logistic regression were 0.95, 0.93, and 0.93, respectively. All ML models outperformed the conventional statistical regression model in the prediction of BCR after prostatectomy. The construction of more reliable and potent models will provide the clinicians and patients with advantages such as more accurate risk classification, prognosis estimation, early intervention, avoidance of unnecessary treatments, relatively lower morbidity and mortality. The ML methods are cheap, and their powers increase with increasing data input; we believe that their clinical use will increase over time.