Abstract

up, smoking status, baseline medications (5-ASA, corticosteroids, thiopurines, anti-TNF agents, NSAIDs, and oral contraceptives), and baseline SCCAI and FES. RESULTS: We identified 45 patients with the following demographic information: mean age 56 years; 29 women; mean duration of UC 17 years; and mean time interval between surveillance colonoscopies 32 months. At baseline, 8 patients (18%) had clinically active disease and 10 (22%) had endoscopically active disease;.at follow-up, 9 (20%) had clinically active disease and 12 (27%) had endoscopically active disease. In multivariable analysis, only baseline FES > 1 was independently predictive of future clinically active disease with an odds ratio (OR) of 14.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.48-83.4; p = 0.003). With respect to predicting future endoscopically active disease, only baseline SCCAI > 2 and FES > 1 were independently predictive with ORs of 56.2 (95% CI, 4.36-724; p = 0.002) and 47.5 (95% CI, 4.79-471; p = 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There were no demographic variables or patterns of medication use that predicted the clinical and endoscopic course in patients with UC. The baseline endoscopic score was the only independent predictor of the future clinical disease activity, and both the baseline clinical and endoscopic scores were the only independent predictors of future endoscopic disease activity.

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