Mô phỏng sự thay đổi diện tích đất lúa dưới tác động của hạn, mặn - Trường hợp nghiên cứu ở tỉnh Sóc Trăng

Abstract

In recent years, drought and salinity intrusion frequently affect rice cultivation areas in dry season of coastal provinces in the Mekong Delta, especially Soc Trang province. This paper aims to analyze the changes of rice areas in dry season by classifying Landsat images based on decision tree with the normalized difference vegetation index data and to build a simulation model of rice area changes under the impacts of drought and salinity intrusion. The rice maps of Soc Trang in dry season in 2014 and in 2016 are developed, corresponding to the maps in normal temperature and in drought and salinity intrusion conditions. These classified maps are assessed by Kappa coefficient of 0.89 for the map in 2014 and 0.83 for the one in 2016. Then, the model of rice area changes is built based on rainfall data, salinity intrusion into irrigation regions. The simulated result of rice map of dry season in 2016 is compared with the real one with Kappa value of 0.88. This result shows the simulated map can be used to provide a visual assessment of rice area under drought and salinity conditions.