Lymph node ratio–based model for predicting survival and assessing the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy in postoperative duodenal adenocarcinoma

Abstract

BackgroundThis study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of lymph node ratio in postoperative duodenal adenocarcinoma and develop a nomogram-based model for prognosis assessment and treatment optimization. MethodsClinical information of patients with duodenal adenocarcinoma were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, and prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariable analyses. Prognostic factors influencing patient outcomes were identified using univariate and multivariable Cox analyses. Subsequently, a novel nomogram and risk stratification system were developed based on these identified factors. ResultsA total of 943 eligible patients were included, with 656 in the training cohort and 287 in the validation cohort. Lymph node ratio ≥0.12 were associated with poorer overall survival (hazard ratio 1.562, 95% confidence interval 1.195–2.041, and P = .001 for lymph node ratio = 0.12–0.30; hazard ratio 2.431, 95% confidence interval 1.847–3.199, and P < .001 for lymph node ratio >0.30). Prognostic factors including age at diagnosis, race, T stage, lymph node ratio, and tumor size were integrated into the nomogram. Patients in the low-risk group demonstrated significantly better overall survival compared with those in the high-risk group. Additionally, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved overall survival in the high-risk subgroup, whereas low-risk patients might be exempt from adjuvant chemotherapy. ConclusionsThis study represented the pioneering endeavor in introducing a lymph node ratio–based nomogram model for prognosis stratification and adjuvant chemotherapy decision-making protocol for patients with duodenal adenocarcinoma, thereby guiding personalized treatment strategies and minimizing overtreatment.