Lung cancer risk perception biases

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on biased perceptions about the risks of smoking. It studies predictors of lung cancer risk perceptions. Lung cancer is one of the deadliest and most aggressive cancer types with 5-year survival rates of only up to 15%. A cross-sectional online survey in Berlin assessed lung cancer risk perceptions among smokers (n = 664), never smokers (n = 703), and former smokers (n = 501) in 2013. In addition to lung cancer risk perceptions, the survey measured many respondent characteristics, such as intention to quit smoking and a self-assessment of the likelihood of success in quitting. The findings show that 80% of all respondents overestimated lung cancer survival rates and suggest significant room for public health campaigns to educate smokers and nonsmokers about the deadliness of lung cancer. Multivariate linear regressions show that smokers who do not plan to quit estimate the 5-Year Lung Cancer Survival Rate to be 11% (p = 0.044) higher than other smokers. A reduction in risk perception biases may induce some smokers to alter their quitting intentions and others to successfully quit.