Lung cancer in Austria: present and future trends.

Abstract

Between 1966 and 1982, age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates in Austria showed a slightly decreasing trend in men and an increasing trend in women. Differences between male and female lung cancer rates and different trends among particular age groups, especially male, can be understood as a function of the difference in past smoking habits: in men, the lung cancer epidemic had already passed its peak. Mortality will continually decrease, with the possibility of a slight and short-lasting future increase, when 1917 to 1931 birth cohorts reach an older age. In women, lung cancer mortality will increase steadily as a consequence of the increasing epidemic of cigarette smoking among young women. But it will never reach the same proportion as in men, because high tar cigarettes have not played the same role in female smoking habits as in male.