LUNENCO – A Business Case Study for Commercial Lunar Energy

Abstract

The Lunar Energy Company (LUNENCO) business case study was developed to investigate whether a commercial power utility on the Moon is a viable business model, and to evaluate different architectures that could meet the goals of a cost and mass efficient power system that meets projected power. The growing interest in pursuing lunar missions in the near future means a large increase in power needs on the Moon. Operating a single power utility to meet the needs of multiple missions could provide a cost-effective power solution. The proposed lunar power utility, operated by LUNENCO, will offer power delivered on the lunar surface to its customers. By providing a singular power solution that is capable of satisfying the needs of multiple customers, future missions will be cheaper as companies will no longer require the development, transportation, and deployment of their own individualized power solution. This availability of an affordable and reliable source of power will enable more lunar missions, increasing the customer base. Through the course of the study, the LUNENCO team analyzed three sides of a business: market, technical, and financial. First, the team conducted a market analysis to determine the potential customers for lunar power. The customer list included government agencies as well as private companies that have expressed an interest in future lunar missions. A customer database was developed with details about each including historical funding of space programs, trend in funding, and any available lunar plans with power demand, timelines, and lunar locations. This information is used to create a projected power demand on the Moon over the 20-year operational lifetime of LUNENCO’s power system. The identified customers were grouped into three tiers based on their likelihood of realizing their lunar missions and earliest landing of their respective systems on the Moon. LUNENCO’s strategy for capturing the customer base is to partner with the early missions, in exchange for favorable long-term power contracts, and establish a presence as a lunar power provider. The investigation of a technical solution focused on whether a system could be developed and deployed to meet the required timelines of the projected customers and what the associated costs of that system would be. The financial analysis was completed using the market demand and the estimated costs of the technical solution to determine if the business model is viable. This analysis concluded that with a maximum projected project NPV in excess of $3.7 billion for the most optimal plan, the outlined business case merits financing.