Ludność na obszarach wiejskich województwa opolskiego – przeszłość i perspektywy demograficzne

Abstract

In the foregoing course of demographic processes in rural areas of the Opolskie Voivodship the population outflow within migration to towns (similar to the situation in the whole country) and the most intensive emigration in Poland stunted the growth of rural population. Despite the positive natural change which lasted till the end of the 20th century the number of rural population was showing lower dynamics and shorter growing period than urban population, characterized by the lack of replacing generations much earlier comparing to rural areas. In the first half of the 21st century it is predicted that in rural areas of the Opolskie Voivodship the population will decrease from 484 thous. in 2011 to 385 thous. people in 2050 (about 20%), however this will still be a less pronounced decrease than in urban areas (about 32%). As a result, the Opolskie Voivodship will experience the greatest depopulation in Poland (about 26% in comparison to de facto population in 2011). However, it should be mentioned that the category of de facto population is not particularly useful in analyzing population size in a region characterized by intensive, temporal migrations abroad, as it takes place in the Opolskie Voivodship. The number of de facto population in this voivodship is overestimated in comparison to its real population size. Thus, demographic prospects concerning the category of resident population rather than de facto population would be more appropriate for managing the development of a region effectively, which is currently threatened by intensive, temporal migration outflow.