LUCC Simulation Based on RF-CNN-LSTM-CA Model with High-Quality Seed Selection Iterative Algorithm

Abstract

Land use/cover change (LUCC) models are essential for studying the profound impact of land use/cover dynamics on various aspects of the natural and social environment. Cellular Automata (CA) is widely used in the dynamic modeling of complex LUCC systems. In the traditional machine learning CA model, when using statistical methods to obtain neighborhood features, there is usually the problem that the spatio-temporal feature learning of neighborhood factors is insufficient. At the same time, the CA dynamic iteration module using the random seed selection mechanism often has the problem that the seed selection efficiency is very low. In this paper, taking the Chongqing Metropolitan Area as an example, convolutional neural networks (CNN)-Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) is introduced to improve the learning effect of the traditional random forest (RF)-CA model in the spatial and temporal characteristics of neighborhood factors. CNN is used to extract the spatial dimension features of LUCC in the neighborhood, and the LSTM model is used to extract the time dimension features and long-term dependencies. At the same time, a high-quality seed selection iterative algorithm (HQSSIA) is used to improve the accuracy of the multi-land-use dynamic change model and the efficiency of the iterative algorithm. The results show that, the proposed model performs better than other models in simulating the LUCC from 2015 to 2020 (Kappa = 0.9684, FOM = 0.1744, Accuracy = 0.9829, F1 = 0.9641, Hamming = 0.0171) and from 2010 to 2020 (Kappa = 0.9599, FOM = 0.4662, Accuracy = 0.9785, F1 = 0.8113, Hamming = 0.0214). After introducing the CNN-LSTM model, the Figure of Merit (FOM) increased by 1.56% and 18.88% for 2015–2020 and 2010–2020. Compared with the CA model-based random seed selection algorithm, the FOM of the model using HQSSIA in the dynamic iteration module are improved by 11.60% and 24.79% for 2015–2020 and 2010–2020, and the operation efficiency of the dynamic iteration module is improved by about 19 times. Compared with the current mainstream LUCC models PLUS and FLUS, the proposed model has improved 14.38%, 37.55%, and 14.93%, 37.74% in FOM, respectively, for 2015–2020 and 2010–2020. The research shows that: (1) RF-CNN-LSTM-CA model not only retains the interpretability advantage of the traditional RF-CA model, but also improves the accuracy of the whole model by improving the spatio-temporal characteristics of neighborhood factors through in-depth learning; (2) the HQSSIA can quickly and accurately search for cells to be converted with higher conversion probability in the observed data, which can not only significantly reduce the time complexity of the model, but also improve the accuracy of LUCC simulation.