<title>Analysis for the development of an orbital debris strategy for space station</title>

Abstract

This paper documents a parametric analysis of collision probability between any low Earth orbit space vehicle and orbital debris. Its purpose is to understand the probability of debris impact (risk) and assess how that risk can be managed through debris avoidance maneuvers by a space vehicle over a period of time. No matter how high the frequency of debris avoidance maneuvers, probability of debris impact (risk) can never be completely eliminated. The probability of collision over time, predicted state vector accuracies for debris and space vehicle, and maneuver rate for any space vehicle in low Earth orbit are fundamentally interrelated. This work discusses the rationale for the selection of the values of analysis parameters, the methods of determining hit probability for a close passage (conjunction) between a space vehicle and a debris object (conjunction), the method of determining maneuver rate and remaining risk, and the significance of the maneuver rate versus remaining risk curves. Assuming the Kessler orbital debris environment model1 and specific space vehicle dimensions, estimated remaining risk and maneuver rates are calculated.