Abstract
In this study the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM ModelE simulations over the Mediterranean in order to assess the grid size selection effect on the estimated climate change in this region. Results are presented for Athens (Greece) and Rome (Italy), the biggest cities at the south-southeast Europe, which are located close to the sea. A multinesting approach is used with grid resolutions of 108 km, 36 km, 12 km, 4 km and 1.3 km. The NASA GISS GCM ModelE is used to simulate current and future climate using the RCP4.5 emissions scenario while WRF simulations are performed for October of 2010 and 2050. The sensitivity analysis assesses the estimated changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed for the related cell in each grid that corresponds to the cities of Athens and Rome. The results show that increasing grid resolution significantly improves the spatial distribution of the examined parameters but does not add much value on the average projected change of the variable.
Highlights
Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary tools used today in climate research
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model [6] is used to dynamically downscale NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM ModelE outputs in a multi nesting approach over the Mediterranean in order to assess the grid size selection effect on the estimated climate change in this region
In order to compare the spatial distributions of the average change, Figures 3 and 4 present the results for the different spatial resolutions for Athens and Rome
Summary
Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the primary tools used today in climate research. There are several modelling groups around the world using different GCMs in order to estimate the future changes in the climatic parameters over the globe. The ability of GCMs to simulate climate change at local and regional scales is limited by their coarse spatial resolution. To overcome this issue, regional climate models (RCMs) have been widely used for downscaling the GCM results. Leduc et al [2] assesed the sensitivity to domain size with a regional climate model. They suggested, from the general point of view of performing seasonal climate simulations with a RCM, the domain size should be carefully chosen depending on the purpose of the study, the region of interest and the season
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