Abstract
<div>Land use and land cover in Cisadane Watershed are very vulnerable to switch over, which is caused by the </div><div>high rate of population growth. Land use and land cover change cause the carbon stock changes. These changes were analysed using the logistic regression models, and in this analysis we used land use maps in 2001 and 2006. As many as 44 regression equations were developed with various values of determination coefficient (R</div><div>2</div><div>); 14% of the R</div><div>2</div><div> was less than 0.50, 29% was between 0.50 and 0.75, and 57% is than 0.75. Statistically, there were 31 equations suitable to generate landuse map in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025. The amount of carbon stocks in Cisadane Watershed until the year 2025 tend to decrease, so the sum of carbon emissions in the atmosphere increased. This was mainly due to conversion of forest area into other landuse types. Land use and land cover in Cisadane Watershed are very vulnerable to switch over, which is caused by the high rate of population growth. Land use and land cover change cause the carbon stock changes. These changes were analysed using the logistic regression models, and in this analysis we used land use maps in 2001 and 2006. As many as 44 regression equations were developed with various values of determination coefficient (R2); 14% of the R2 was less than 0.50, 29% was between 0.50 and 0.75, and 57% is than 0.75. Statistically, there were 31 equations suitable to generate landuse map in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025. The amount of carbon stocks in Cisadane Watershed until the year 2025 tend to decrease, so the sum of carbon emissions in the atmosphere increased. This was mainly due to conversion of forest area into other landuse types. </div>
Highlights
Land use and land cover in Cisadane Watershed are very vulnerable to switch over, which is caused by the high rate of population growth
As many as 44 regression equations were developed with various values of determination coefficient (R2); 14% of the R2 was less than 0.50, 29% was between 0.50 and 0.75, and 57% is than 0.75
The amount of carbon stocks in Cisadane Watershed until the year 2025 tend to decrease, so the sum of carbon emissions in the atmosphere increased. This was mainly due to conversion of forest area into other landuse types
Summary
Data yang diperlukan untuk membuat model persamaan perubahan penggunaan lahan adalah data fisik dan data sosial DAS Cisadane tahun 2001 dan 2006 saja sedangkan data tahun 2008 digunakan untuk validasi dari model persamaan yang dihasilkan. Data fisik DAS Cisadane meliputi data/peta penggunaan lahan tahun 2001 dan 2006, sedangkan data kondisi sosial ekonomi DAS Cisadane meliputi data kepadatan penduduk dan pendapatan rata-rata penduduk di DAS Cisadane. Variabel bebas berupa peta pendapatan penduduk dibuat dengan mengklasifikasi data pendapatan penduduk berdasarkan kabupaten dan kota yang ada di DAS Cisadane, yaitu kabupaten Bogor, kabupaten Tangerang, kabupaten Sukabumi, kabupaten Lebak, kota Bogor, dan kota Tangerang. Setelah variabel bebas dan variabel terikat didapat, selanjutnya dilakukan pembentukan persamaan regresi logistik menggunakan aplikasi logitreg pada software IDRISI dengan probability sample size sebesar 81 dan tingkat kepercayaan (confidence level) sebesar 0,8, artinya mempresentasikan 80% akan terjadi perubahan di masa akan datang berdasarkan peta peluangnya
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