Abstract
<p>Climate anomaly has significant impact on rainfall and its pattern, whereas they were important factor in determining onset of wet and dry season. Changes in rainfall pattern need to antisipate with tailoring planting date for minimize harvest risk. This research purpose to analyse dry spell probability and its relation to drought risk on rainfed paddy at Kulon Progo District in Toposequence Perspective.Kulon Progo District was divided into three sequence, that were Fluvial as catchment area (i.e. Samigaluh); Freatik as conservation area (i.e. Kenteng, Kalibawang and Kokap); and Fluksial as user area (i.e. Gembongan- Sentolo, Sapon-Lendah and Wates). The aimed of this research was to analyze the drought periods and its relation with drought risks on rainfed rice plant at Kulon Progo district in toposequence perspective. The probabilities of 15 day dry spell at Fluvial area were 0,27 – 0,44 on May-September. On Freatik area, the probabilities of 15 day dry spell were 0,21 - 0,43 on April-Oktober at Kenteng, while at Kalibawang and Kokap the probabilities were > 0,2 on May-September. The probabilities at Gembongan-Sapon were> 0,2 on May-October, while at Wates the probabilities on May-September were 0,21-0,32. The distribution of probability show that the probability of 15 day dry spell were > 0,2 at May-October and the driest periods were August-September but with various dry level, that Kenteng and Gembongan-Sapon were the driest area. Based on that analysis, the planting periods should be started on November and the last planting should not over than January, especially at Kenteng, Gembongan and Sapon.</p>
Highlights
Climate anomaly has significant impact on rainfall and its pattern, whereas they were important factor in determining onset of wet and dry season
The distribution of probability show that the probability of 15 day dry spell were > 0,2 at May-October and the driest periods were August-September but with various dry level, that Kenteng and GembonganSapon were the driest area
The planting periods should be started on November and the last planting should not over than January, especially at Kenteng, Gembongan and Sapon
Summary
Penyimpangan dan perubahan iklim ditengarai berdampak terhadap jumlah curah hujan dan periode musim hujan dan musim kemarau. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis peluang deret hari kering dan hubungannya dengan resiko kekeringan pada tanaman padi di Kabupaten Kulon Progo dalam perspektif toposekuens. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa di wilayah tangkapan air, yaitu Samigaluh nilai peluang deret hari kering 15 hari berkisar antara 0,27 – 0,44 pada bulan Mei – September. Distribusi nilai peluang menunjukkan pada sebagian besar wilayah kajian peluang deret hari kering 10 dan 15 hari bernilai lebih dari 0,2 pada bulan Mei - Oktober dan puncak kekeringan pada bulan Agustus-September namun dengan tingkat kekeringan yang berbeda-beda dimana Kenteng dan Gembongan-Sapon tampaknya merupakan wilayah paling kering dibandingkan wilayah kajian lainnya pada tiga zone yang ada. Semestinya dengan pola hujan yang ada, MT I dimulai pada bulan November dan penanaman terakhir tidak melebihi bulan Januari terutama pada daerah yang bersifat lebih kering seperti Kenteng, Gembongan dan Sapon, lewat dari Januari maka resiko tanaman mengalami kekeringan akan semakin besar, terutama tanaman yang berada pada fase vegetatif, pembungaan dan inisiasi malai
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