&lt;strong&gt;VALIDATION TECHNIQUE FOR SIMPLE OPERATIONAL USE (INDRAMAYU, SUMEDANG, AND MAJALENGKA DISTRICTS CASE OF 2003)&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt; TEKNIK VALIDASI UNTUK PENGGUNAAN OPERASI SEDERHANA (KASUS KABUPATEN INDRAMAYU, SUMEDANG, DAN MAJALENGKA TAHUN 2003)

Yunus S Swarinoto

doi:10.29244/j.agromet.23.2.148-168

Abstract

The model output of rainfall total prediction has to be validated before being applied to the operational use. After understanding the accuracy of this rainfall total prediction output, one has to make decision whether applying it in the field or not. This depends upon the value of accuracy as well. Validation technique for simple operational use can be made by applying Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and spatial rainfall defferentiation values (ΔRR). The Wavelet Transformation Technique (WTT) for providing rainfall total prediction output of rainy and transition seasons 2003 had been applied to the domain of interest Indramayu, Sumedang, and Majalengka districts. Results show that during January 2003 (rainy season respectively) r = 0.65 with RMSE = 296 mm and 75.39% spatial disagreement area; but within April 2003 (transition season respectively) r = 0.49 with RMSE = 152 mm and 43.55% spatial disagreement area. Topography condition has play a role to the rainfall deferenciation values, especially for Lee-ward location. This is described by higher differentiation values of rainfall total prediction after reaching the top of elevation above mean sea level.

Highlights

Rainfall total prediction using miscellaneous models are commonly used in operational purposes
The model output of rainfall total prediction has to be validated before being applied to the operational use
The Wavelet Transformation Technique (WTT) for providing rainfall total prediction output of rainy and transition seasons 2003 had been applied to the domain of interest Indramayu, Sumedang, and Majalengka districts

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Rainfall total prediction using miscellaneous models are commonly used in operational purposes. These models can be based on statistical approach, dynamical approach, or even both statistical and dynamical approaches at once (Swarinoto 2001). The use of machines to provide rainfall prediction is meant to help human to compute miscellaneous climate parameters in a fast manner. In order to make easier computation procedure, there are often used some assumptions in these mathematical equations This condition will imply to the results of prediction output. It is very important to utilize an easy way to evaluate the result of rainfall total prediction. Because operational purposes need a rapid way to know the result of evaluation This condition has relationship with the application of models in operational use. Because the prediction output will have a lot of risks to be applied in the field

Method

Method of Prediction

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION