LSTM model for predicting the daily number of asthma patients in Seoul, South Korea, using meteorological and air pollution data.

Abstract

Asthma is a common respiratory disease that is affected by air pollutants and meteorological factors. In this study, we developed models that predict the daily number of patients receiving treatment for asthma using air pollution and meteorological data. A neural network with long short-term memory (LSTM) and fully connected (FC) layers was used. The daily number of asthma patients in the city of Seoul, the capital of South Korea, was collected from the National Health Insurance Service. The data from 2015 to 2018 were used as the training and validation datasets for model development. Unseen data from 2019 were used for testing. The daily number of asthma patients per 100,000 inhabitants was predicted. The LSTM-FC neural network model achieved a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.984 (P < 0.001) and root mean square error of 3.472 between the predicted and original values on the unseen testing dataset. The factors that impacted the prediction were the number of asthma patients in the previous time step before the predicted date, type of day (regular day and day after a holiday), minimum temperature, SO2, daily changes in the amount of cloud, and daily changes in diurnal temperature range. We successfully developed a neural network that predicts the onset and exacerbation of asthma, and we identified the crucial influencing air pollutants and meteorological factors. This study will help us to establish appropriate measures according to the daily predicted number of asthma patients and reduce the daily onset and exacerbation of asthma in the susceptible population.