Low‐frequency variability of tropical cyclone‐induced heavy rainfall over East Asia associated with tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperatures

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC)–induced heavy rainfall over East Asia (EA) and large‐scale climate variability during June–October for the period of 1961–2005. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to the seasonal‐total TC‐induced heavy rainfall obtained in meteorological stations over EA. The first leading mode shows a dipole pattern between South China (SC) and Northeast Asia (NEA; i.e., Southeast‐East China, Taiwan, and Japan). This dipole pattern is found to be associated with the two modes of sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the Pacific: one in the tropical Pacific, and the other spanning from EA to the North Pacific Ocean. The former is located in the NINO4 region, while the latter is characterized by the North Pacific center of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The dipole mode is generally well explained by the combined NINO4 and PDO impacts on TC tracks. During positive NINO4, cyclonic steering flows appear over inshore Southeast China, which increases recurving TCs. Meanwhile, the midlatitude North Pacific SST warming during negative PDO is overlaid by the barotropic anticyclone. The anomalous steering easterlies along 20°–40°N related to the anticyclone increase TC occurrence toward Southeast‐East China and Taiwan. Furthermore, the precipitable water greatly increases in the midlatitude ocean during negative PDO years, which may help to enhance the rainfall amount while TCs approach Japan. To sum up, in a climatological sense, the first mode of TC‐induced heavy rainfall over EA can be interpreted by the combined variations of negative (positive) PDO with positive (negative) NINO4.