Low-Frequency Atmospheric Variability Patterns and Synoptic Types Linked to Large Floods in the Lower Ebro River Basin

Abstract

Abstract This study analyzes the atmospheric variability that caused the largest floods affecting the town of Tortosa, Spain, in the mouth of the Ebro River (northeast Iberian Peninsula). The Tortosa flood database and flood marks in the nearby town of Xerta are used to define the more relevant flooding episodes (discharges >2900 m3 s−1) of the 1600–2005 period. We explore the atmospheric variability based on low-frequency patterns and synoptic types applying a multivariable analysis to grids at sea level pressure and geopotential at 500 hPa provided by the twentieth-century V3 Reanalysis Project for the instrumental period (since 1836). Output from the Last Millennium Ensemble Project was used to analyze the sea level pressure over the pre-instrumental period (before 1836). Our analysis includes 33 flood episodes. Four synoptic types are related to floods in Tortosa since 1836, characterized by low pressure systems that interact with the Mediterranean warm air mass and promote atmospheric destabilization. Flooding in Tortosa is related to relative high values of solar activity, positive Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies, and NAO in positive phase. This result indicates that the major floods are related to zonal atmospheric circulations (west-to-east cyclone transfer). During winter, the main impact of the floods is located at the western part of the basin, and the Pyrenean subbasins are affected during autumn. The major finding is that similar flood behavior is detected since 1600, improving our understanding of past climates, enhancing the knowledge base for some aspects and impacts of climate change, and reducing uncertainty about future outcomes. Significance Statement A total of 33 large floods (>2900 m3 s−1) were registered since 1600 in Tortosa, Spain, located at the mouth of the Ebro River (northeast Iberian Peninsula). They occur associated with low pressure systems that interact with the Mediterranean warm air mass promoting atmospheric destabilization. The floods in Tortosa are also associated with other important processes occurring at significantly longer time scales: high values of solar activity, positive Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies, and NAO in positive phase, indicating that the major floods are related to zonal atmospheric circulations. The major finding is that we detect similar flood behaviors since 1600, improving our understanding of past climates, enhancing the knowledge base for some aspects and impacts of climate change, and reducing uncertainty about future outcomes.