Low-carbon development strategy for the West African electricity system: preliminary assessment using System dynamics approach

Abiodun Suleiman Momodu,Ahmad Addo,John-Felix Kayode Akinbami,Yacob Mulugetta

doi:10.1186/s13705-017-0113-4

Abstract

BackgroundPolicy makers seek to understand the trade-offs needed between economic growth and climate change. This provides the context to explore low-carbon development (LCD) pathways for the West African electricity system.MethodsThe study relied on both primary and secondary sources to elicit required information. These data were elicited from relevant authorities in the West African electricity system, namely, West African Power Pool and ECOWAS Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority. The objectives were to evaluate the planning processes in the West African Power Pool electricity system vis-a-vis low-carbon development strategy (LCDS), develop a System dynamics (SD) model, and assess the relevance of the developed model to examine the nonlinear relationship between generation adequacy and greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction. The SD model examined the tension between providing adequate supply capacity against reducing emission from the generation technologies in the West Africa electricity system. This model arranged the complexities in the system and established the basic interconnecting structure to conduct the analysis. High leverage points were identified.ResultsFour high leverage points were identified: capacity factor (CF), emission factor (EF), time to adjust capacity, and expectation formation. CF and EF improvement increased efficiency in the system. The expectation formation periods were determined at 7.5 years for the base case scenario and 7 years for the low-carbon development option scenario. Time to adjust capacity was located at 21 and 20 years respectively; deduced from the average time, it will take to construct a combined cycle gas power plant (3 years) and an allowance of 2 years for delays and its decommissioning time. Between 2011 and 2012, in LCD option scenario, emission of GHG to the atmosphere dropped as generation did but began a steady rise for the simulation period to a value of 6.154 billion tCO2 in 2060.ConclusionsElectricity Planning-Low-Carbon Development (EP-LCD) model—with three modules, was developed for assessing WAPP in low carbon economy. High leverage points identified in the model simulation situate three policy options for overcoming poverty and mitigation targets as regards resource mix, investment cost recovery, and technical factors to reduce system’s environmental footprint.

Highlights

Policy makers seek to understand the trade-offs needed between economic growth and climate change
There is no internationally agreed definition of Low-Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS), this study focuses on integrated climate and lowcarbon development strategies that cover the intersection of development and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in West Africa power sector
The structure of the model was first established to ascertain the model behavior, this was followed by unit checks; the model has been calibrated using values for the parameters identified in the model by means of data from West African Power Pool (WAPP) and the high leverage points identified

Summary

Introduction

Policy makers seek to understand the trade-offs needed between economic growth and climate change This provides the context to explore low-carbon development (LCD) pathways for the West African electricity system. Climate change is currently recognized as one of the most complex, multifaceted, and serious threats the world faces [1] This recognition gave rise to the need to find a way to simultaneously address climate change and at the same time help to advance developmental aspirations. Low-carbon development is a development paradigm that contributes to addressing these twin challenges of the 21st century It seeks to promote economic growth or sustainable development while keeping greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions low or lower than without interventions. This gave rise to the concept of Low-Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS). Adaptation issues included are those that relate to mitigation actions

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Conclusion