Abstract
Abstract The dynamics of COVID-19 in India are captured using a set of delay differential equations by dividing a population into five compartments. The Positivity and Boundedness of the system is shown. The Existence and Uniqueness condition for the solution of system of equations is presented. The equilibrium points are calculated and stability analysis is performed. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the parameters of the model. Bifurcation analysis is performed and the critical delay is calculated. By formulating the spread parameter as a function of temperature, the impact of temperature on the population is studied. We concluded that with the decrease in temperature, the average infections in the population increases. In view of the coming winter season in India, there will be an increase in new infections. This model falls in line with the characteristics that increase in isolation delay increases average infections in the population.
Highlights
The pandemic of COVID-19 has spread its tentacles across the world
This model falls in line with the characteristics that increase in isolation delay increases average infections in the population
The system of delay di erential equations proposed in this paper, incorporates key characteristics of COVID-19
Summary
The pandemic of COVID-19 has spread its tentacles across the world. Large number of countries are seeing a spike in the new infections and a few experiencing second wave of the pandemic. Moving into the winter season where in uenza spreads rapidly and vaccine not being available to everyone in the near future, the impact of temperature and isolation is an important study in ghting COVID-19. A few models incorporated the impact delay on COVID-19 in India. Low temperatures or high isolation delay increases the average COVID-19 infections in India. We tried to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in India using a system of delay di erential equations from the inspiration given in [21]. The e ect of temperature is incorporated using the spread parameters.
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