Low levels of climate niche conservatism may explain clade diversity patterns in the South African genusPelargonium(Geraniaceae)

Abstract

Sharp climatic gradients in South Africa and in particular in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) provide a diversity of niches over short distances that may have promoted ecological diversification in local clades. Here we measured the extent to which closely related species occupy divergent climates and test whether niche lability is correlated with higher species diversity in the genus. We integrated phylogenetic information and environmental niche models (ENM) to assess the levels of climate niche conservatism. ENMs for 113 species of Pelargonium were calculated using maximum entropy. We used two tests, one assessing climate niche equivalency and the other testing niche similarity between sister species and within sections. We also examined whether niche similarity was correlated with phylogenetic relatedness across the genus. Niche similarity was mostly independent of phylogenetic relationships. Compared to random expectations, 23% of closely related species pairs had climate niches that were more similar, and only 6.5% were more disparate; the remaining 70% of comparisons had similarities that fell within random expectations. Similar trends were observed when analyses were restricted to only sister species pairs. Although the overall proportion of niche divergence was low, this was significantly related to sectional diversity. We also found a negative relationship between diversity and the proportion of random niches. Lack of widespread niche conservatism in a highly heterogeneous landscape and few instances of significant climate niche lability suggest that an adaptive divergence process was implicated in the Pelargonium radiation.