Low-Intensity Warfare, High-Intensity Death: The Demographic Impact of The Wars in El Salvador and Nicaragua

Abstract

Estimates of deaths resulting from the civil wars in El Salvador (1980-91) and Nicaragua (1975-90) are of questionable reliability because of the highly politicized contexts in which they were made their incompleteness and methodological inconsistencies. This work evaluates existing mortality estimates that were published during the conflicts and presents a preliminary comparison of the of war-related mortality in each country. The commonly cited figure of 75000 war-related deaths in El Salvador would mean that 1 of every 66 Salvadorans perished while the estimate of 80000 deaths in Nicaragua would mean that 1 of every 38 Nicaraguans died. By comparison the US which classified the wars in Central America as low intensity lost 1 in 387 during World War II. Following examination of the sources and data omissions a revised estimate of deaths of soldiers and civilians attributable to the civil war in El Salvador of between 80000 and 94000 is proposed. Existing calculations for Nicaragua appear less reliable than those for El Salvador. A combined calculation for the civil war and the war against the contras of 80000 deaths of which perhaps 40000 were civilians appears reasonable. The numerical estimates suggest the magnitude of the destruction of human life caused by the wars but provide little information concerning the victims. 1995 surveys of nationally representative samples of 1200 persons in Nicaragua and 1609 in El Salvador contained questions on relatives lost in the wars. 34% of respondents in El Salvador and 35% in Nicaragua reported they had lost family members in the wars. The responses clearly showed that although the violence affected all social and economic sectors in both countries in El Salvador those with leftist political inclinations were disproportionately affected.