Low Emission Road Transport Scenarios: An Integrated Assessment of Energy Demand, Air Quality, GHG Emissions, and Costs

Abstract

This article proposes an integrated assessment methodology aimed at supporting decision-makers in design energy production scenarios to power a low emissions traffic fleet. The Multidimensional Air Quality (MAQ) system is used to define and solve a decision problem that selects a set of energy production scenarios minimizing costs, impacts on air quality, and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. This study focuses on the road transport sector, that is responsible for 25% of European GHGs emissions and 39% of NO <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><i>x</i></sub> emission, a precursor of both NO <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sub> and PM <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">10</sub> concentrations. The electrification of the light vehicle fleet and the use of biomethane to power heavy vehicles are analyzed, estimating the electricity demand increase, exploring different energy production mixes, and assessing the impacts on air quality, costs, and GHGs according to the fuels/sources used to satisfy the energy demand. A case study over Lombardy region, in Northern Italy, is proposed. <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Note to Practitioners</i> —The study designs a new decision problem implemented and solved through the Multidimensional Air Quality system (MAQ), an integrated assessment modeling tool. Such system integrates a set of databases, models, optimization, and enumeration algorithms. Composing these elements, specific multiobjective decision problems can be designed defining domain (mesoscale, regional, urban), objectives (air quality index, greenhouse gas emissions, costs, population exposure, health impacts), decision variables (technologies, behavioral measures, energy production, fuel switch), and constraints. MAQ system allows the comprehensive analysis of energy, technological, behavioral policies estimating impacts on air quality, human health, GHGs emissions, and costs.