Low daily MEWS scores as predictors of low-risk hospitalized patients.

Abstract

The Modified Early Warning System (MEWS) is a well-validated tool used by hospitals to identify patients at high risk for an adverse event to occur. However, there has been little evaluation into whether a low MEWS score can be predictive of patients with a low likelihood of an adverse event. The present study aims to evaluate the MEWS score as a method of identifying patients at low risk for adverse events. Retrospective cohort study of 5676 patient days and analysis of associated MEWS scores, medical comorbidities and adverse events. The primary outcome was the association of average daily MEWS scores in those who had an adverse event compared with those who did not. Those with an average MEWS score of >2 were over 9 times more likely to have an adverse event compared with those with an average MEWS score of 1-2, and over 15 times more likely to have an adverse event compared to those with an average MEWS score of <1. Our study shows that those with average daily MEWS scores <2 are at a significantly lower likelihood of having an adverse event compared with a score of >2, deeming them 'low-risk patients'. Formal recognition of such patients can have major implications in a hospital setting, including more efficient resource allocation in hospitals and better patient satisfaction and safety by adjusting patient monitoring according to their individual risk profile.