Low-carbon transformation planning of China's power energy system under the goal of carbon neutrality.

Abstract

China has become the largest energy producer and consumer in the world. Its carbon emissions account for 80% of its total carbon emissions, while the carbon emissions caused by energy consumption in the power industry account for more than 50%. To ensure that the 2030 carbon-peak and 2060 carbon-neutral targets are achieved, it is imperative to carry out low-carbon energy transformation in the power industry. The paper compares and analyzes the technical level of six high-energy-consuming industries: power, steel, cement, aluminum smelting, petrochemical industry, and coal chemical industry in terms of low carbon. The results show that the structural adjustment of China's high-energy-consuming industries has reached the upper limit, and the low-carbon transformation of power and energy has become inevitable. The carbon emissions of China's six regional power grids are statistically analyzed. The background of the power generation proportion of China's thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power and other different energy systems from 2018 to 2020 is analyzed, and the development trend is predicted. The low-carbon emission path of power energy is proposed. Based on the EnergyPLAN model, the power energy structure of carbon peaking in different scenarios from 2020 to 2030 is constructed, and the power energy system's carbon dioxide emission reduction paths under different scenarios are obtained. The sustainability impact of different power generation combination scenarios is comprehensively evaluated using the multi-index evaluation method, and the optimal path of the power system to energy scenario is selected. The research conclusion provides a basis for the power sector's renewable energy power generation path selection.