Low-carbon transformation of power structure under the "double carbon" goal: power planning and policy implications.

Abstract

The proposal of "double carbon" goal increases the pressure of power structure transformation. This paper sets up two scenarios according to the timing progress of realizing the "double carbon" goal and explores the transformation planning schemes of China's power structure. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Technological progress and policy support will greatly reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of onshore wind power, offshore wind power, photovoltaic power, and photothermal power. The rapid rise in carbon price will lead to the LCOE of coal power in 2060 rising to 2 CNY/kWh. (2) The power consumption of the whole society in the baseline scenario can reach 17,000 TWh in 2060. In the acceleration scenario, this value may triple that in 2020 to 21,550 TWh. (3) The acceleration scenario will pay more newly added power costs and coal power stranded scale than the baseline scenario but can achieve carbon peak and negative emissions earlier. (4) More attention should be paid to the flexible level of power system, improve the allocation proportion and requirements of new energy storage on the power supply side, help the steady exit of coal power, and ensure the safety of low-carbon transformation of power structure.